Dieser Markt wurde entschieden: Yes (96.3%)
Entschieden: 02.10.2026, 02:21
Vom Anbieter verifizierte Auflösung
CoinRithm hat anbietergestützte Nachweise für Gewinner und Auflösungszeit dieses Marktes.
Warnung zur DatenqualitätVeraltete Daten
Daten vom 02.10.2026, 12:34 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Wahrscheinlichkeitsverlauf
Yes96.3%
No3.700000000000003%
Gewonnen
Verloren
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
New Virginia congressional map used in the midterms?
PolymarketWill Texas's 2025 redistricting map be used in the 2026 midterms?
Manifold MarketsBrazil Presidential Election
PolymarketWhich party will win the U.S. House?
Kalshi2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
KalshiNext French Presidential Election
PolymarketRegeln
California just passed Prop 50, which redistricted the state to give Democrats five more seats in the US House.
- Now, the Justice Department is suing to throw out the map.
- This market resolves YES if the Prop 50 map (or a close variant, as judged by me*) ends up being used in the 2026 midterm elections.
- Otherwise, the market resolves NO.
- *I'll probably judge a map as "close" if it is about as favorable to Democrats as the Prop 50 map (or more favorable).
- But if e.g. the map that ends up being used only gives four extra seats to Democrats, then I'll probably judge the map as "not close".