Before 2028, will a sovereign state directly manipulate a real-money prediction market?
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This question resolves Yes if, before 2028, credible sources (as defined below) report that a sovereign state has, itself or through an agent working on its behalf, executed one or more trades on a real-money prediction market (including cryptocurrency-based markets) for the purposes of manipulating the market's pricing or implied probability.
- Credible sources shall be defined using Metaculus' definition:
- A "credible source" will be taken to be an online or in-print published story from a journalistic source, or information publicly posted on a the website of an organization by that organization making public information pertaining to that organization, or in another source where the preponderance of evidence suggests that the information is correct and that there is no significant controversy surrounding the information or its correctness.
- It will generally not include unsourced information found in blogs, facebook or twitter postings, or websites of individuals.
- Update 2024-08-13: It was my original intent that "real-money prediction market" include crypto-currency based markets (e.g., Polymarket).
- I've edited the above to make this explicit.
