Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Nein 55.8%
Prognostiker
18
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 21 Minuten
23. Juni 26, 17:31 UTC31. Dez. 27, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will real money prediction markets be legal in the US before 2028?
Manifold MarketsBefore 2028, will a sovereign state directly manipulate a real-money prediction market?
Manifold MarketsWill Meta (Facebook) deliver on it's web3/metaverse vision before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhen will a real money prediction market about OpenAI announcing AGI first stay above 90% for one month?
Manifold MarketsBitcoin price at the end of 2026
KalshiBTC price on Oct 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiRegeln
Resolves YES if, by 23:59 ET on Dec 31, 2027, Meta Platforms makes a real money prediction market product (the app reported by NYT as internally codenamed "Arena," or any successor/rebrand) publicly available to general users in at least one market, via official launch or public beta.
- Users should be able stake and win real money or real-money-equivalent value (cash, crypto, redeemable credits).
- Sweepstakes or promotional models count as long as they pay out real-money value.
- Pure play-money, points-only, or free-to-play versions with no cash-equivalent payout do not count.
- Waitlist, internal-only test or unreleased announcement does not count.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
