KalshiVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlich2% GebührVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGrob kalibriertAktuelle implizite WahrscheinlichkeitSan Diego, CA 89%Führend unter 10 Optionen
Marktqualitat
49 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
15,4 €
Liquidität
25.639,7 €
Hohe LiquiditätGeld / Brief
81.0% / 86.0%
Spread
5.0 pt
Mittlerer SpreadMarktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 24 Minuten
13. Mai 26, 23:0031. Dez. 26, 15:00
Trends
Nur virtuelles Guthaben – kein echtes GeldKeine Finanzberatung
Gewähltes Ergebnis
Denver, CO80%
Plattformen vergleichen· San Diego, CA
Sortiert nach Marktqualität, dann Liquidität und 24-h-Volumen| Plattform | Qualität | Wahrscheinlichkeit | vs. Referenz | 24h Vol | Liq | Aktualität | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiDiese SeiteBeste insgesamt | Niedrig | 89% | — | 15,4 € | 25.639,7 € | vor 24 Minuten | |
 Manifold Markets85% Übereinstimmung · geprüft | — | 100% | — | — | — | vor 12 Tagen | Öffnen → |
Auch verfügbar auf Manifold Markets
Where will Waymo be available in 2026?
5Mon
100%
100%
100%
+16 weitere Ergebnisse
Community-Prognose33 PrognostikerTyp: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSRegeln
If Waymo is operating commercial autonomous vehicle ride-hailing services available to the general public within Washington, DC before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- "Operating commercial services" means that members of the general public can download the Waymo app (or access Waymo through a partner app), request a ride with pickup and dropoff locations within Washington, DC, and receive autonomous vehicle service for a fee.
- The service must be available to the general public without requiring special invitation codes, waitlist approval, or participation in testing programs, though geographic coverage within Washington, DC may be limited to certain areas.
- Services operating exclusively with safety drivers present do not satisfy the Payout Criterion; the service must offer fully autonomous rides (without a human safety driver) at least some of the time.
- Examples that WOULD resolve to Yes:
- Waymo launches public commercial service in any part of Washington, DC Waymo expands from adjacent areas into Washington, DC limits Waymo operates 24/7 service or limited hours service within Washington, DC Waymo offers service through the Uber app to all users in Washington, DC Service is geofenced to only certain neighborhoods but is public
Wahrscheinlichkeiten können aufgrund unterschiedlicher Marktstrukturen, Gebühren und Teilnehmerpools abweichen.
Volumentrend
$182. Juli26T Daten27. Juli
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If Waymo is operating commercial autonomous vehicle ride-hailing services available to the general public within Washington, DC before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- "Operating commercial services" means that members of the general public can download the Waymo app (or access Waymo through a partner app), request a ride with pickup and dropoff locations within Washington, DC, and receive autonomous vehicle service for a fee.
- The service must be available to the general public without requiring special invitation codes, waitlist approval, or participation in testing programs, though geographic coverage within Washington, DC may be limited to certain areas.
- Services operating exclusively with safety drivers present do not satisfy the Payout Criterion; the service must offer fully autonomous rides (without a human safety driver) at least some of the time.
- Examples that WOULD resolve to Yes:
- Waymo launches public commercial service in any part of Washington, DC Waymo expands from adjacent areas into Washington, DC limits Waymo operates 24/7 service or limited hours service within Washington, DC Waymo offers service through the Uber app to all users in Washington, DC Service is geofenced to only certain neighborhoods but is public