KalshiVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlich2% GebührVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätKeine aktiven Kurse
Daten vom 09.09.2026, 14:45 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-3
Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Reform UK minority + Conservative support 15%Führend unter 19 Optionen
Marktqualitat
42 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
—
Liquidität
1789,6 €
Niedrige LiquiditätSpread
4.9 pt
Mittlerer SpreadMarktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 13 Minuten
21. Mai 26, 14:00 UTC1. Jan. 30, 15:00 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
In which year will King Charles III cease to be King of the United Kingdom?
Manifold MarketsWill United Kingdom join BRICS before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Wales leave the United Kingdom before 2030?
Manifold MarketsUnited Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
KalshiWill Ye visit The United Kingdom this year?
KalshiWill the United Kingdom join the EU?
KalshiRegeln
If Reform UK, with Reform UK holding a majority of seats in the House of Commons exclusively make up the next elected ruling government of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- A party is considered part of government if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position in the new government.
- This evaluation occurs at the first official, stable formation of the government once the legislative process is complete and the head of state appoints ministers under normal non-caretaker circumstances.
- Confidence and supply arrangements where a party supports the government without holding cabinet positions may be included if explicitly specified in the parties description.
- Caretaker or interim governments appointed temporarily before formal government formation do not count for determining party status.
- A sole 'minority' government designation (e.g. 'Party X minority') means the relevant party is the ruling government but does not have a confidence and supply agreement with any party or a majority of seats in the parliament (or equivalent legislature).
Offene Märkte
ElectionsKALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.4%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-2.0pt15.3%
- Gavin Newsom-1.0pt13.3%
+45 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 183,6 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 564.936,6 €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-2.0pt52%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+2.9pt45.1%
- Renan Santos+0.3pt2%
+16 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIRhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
- Helena Foulkes-0.9pt96.1%
- Dan McKee+3.3pt3.9%
- Gregory Stevens0%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 644.157,3 €
- 24h-Volumen
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+1.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)+0.4pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.1pt3%
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 602,8 Mio. €
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen-0.2pt37.5%
- Édouard Philippe-1.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon12.5%
+38 weitere Ergebnisse
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- NJ-07 House winner?
- IA-01 House winner?
- Which states will redistrict before the midterms?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Next government of the United Kingdom??
- Kalshi bewertet Reform UK minority + Conservative support mit 15% (Stand: 9. September 2026).
- Wann wird Next government of the United Kingdom? entschieden?
- Next government of the United Kingdom? soll am 1. Januar 2030 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Next government of the United Kingdom? abgerechnet?
- Kalshi rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: If Reform UK, with Reform UK holding a majority of seats in the House of Commons exclusively make up the next elected ruling government of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.