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  1. Prognosemärkte
  2. Wahl
  3. Next government of the United Kingdom?
Next government of the United Kingdom?

Next government of the United Kingdom?

WahlPolitikEuropeOne-OffUS PoliticsChessSport3J
KalshiKalshiVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlich2% Gebühr
Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Reform UK majority
Reform UK majority 15%
Führend unter 19 Optionen
Marktqualitat

24 / 100

Niedrige Qualität
24h-Volumen

0 €

Liquidität

8,5 €

Niedrige Liquidität
Geld / Brief

8.6% / 15.0%

Spread

74.4%

Breiter Spread
Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 7 Minuten

21. Mai 26, 14:001. Jan. 30, 15:00

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit

Gewähltes Ergebnis

Reform UK majority15%

Regeln

If Reform UK, with Reform UK holding a majority of seats in the House of Commons exclusively make up the next elected ruling government of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • A party is considered part of government if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position in the new government.
  • This evaluation occurs at the first official, stable formation of the government once the legislative process is complete and the head of state appoints ministers under normal non-caretaker circumstances.
  • Confidence and supply arrangements where a party supports the government without holding cabinet positions may be included if explicitly specified in the parties description.
  • Caretaker or interim governments appointed temporarily before formal government formation do not count for determining party status.
  • A sole 'minority' government designation (e.g. 'Party X minority') means the relevant party is the ruling government but does not have a confidence and supply agreement with any party or a majority of seats in the parliament (or equivalent legislature).

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Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election?

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What will Keir Starmer say at the next Prime Minister's Questions event?

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In diesen Themen aktiv

BitcoinBTC$62,963.68+2.52%SolanaSOL$65.35+1.78%EthereumETH$1,660.88+1.86%DogecoinDOGE$0.0851+1.60%XRPXRP$1.12+0.59%BNBBNB$597.16+1.90%

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Regeln

If Reform UK, with Reform UK holding a majority of seats in the House of Commons exclusively make up the next elected ruling government of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • A party is considered part of government if one or more of its representatives hold at least one ministerial or cabinet-level position in the new government.
  • This evaluation occurs at the first official, stable formation of the government once the legislative process is complete and the head of state appoints ministers under normal non-caretaker circumstances.
  • Confidence and supply arrangements where a party supports the government without holding cabinet positions may be included if explicitly specified in the parties description.
  • Caretaker or interim governments appointed temporarily before formal government formation do not count for determining party status.
  • A sole 'minority' government designation (e.g. 'Party X minority') means the relevant party is the ruling government but does not have a confidence and supply agreement with any party or a majority of seats in the parliament (or equivalent legislature).