KalshiVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlich2% GebührVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätKeine aktiven Kurse
Daten vom 22.09.2026, 02:35 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-3
Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Before 2027 22%
Marktqualitat
47 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
—
Liquidität
10.750,3 €
Mittlere LiquiditätGeld / Brief
2.0% / 7.0%
Spread
5.0 pt
Mittlerer SpreadMarktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 9 Minuten
11. Mai 26, 16:00 UTC1. Jan. 27, 15:00 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027?
PolymarketWill Trump recognize Somaliland?
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Manifold MarketsRegeln
If the United States explicitly and formally recognizes the Republic of China as a sovereign state independent from any previously recognized country after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, the market resolves to Yes.
Abwicklung über:White House
- This could include: opening a U.S. embassy with the Republic of China, accepting an ambassador from the Republic of China, including the entity as an independent country in U.S. Department of State country lists, or signing a formal treaty, bilateral agreement, or communique that explicitly identifies the Republic of China as an independent and sovereign state.
- Merely acknowledging a governing authority exists, without recognizing its authority, is insufficient to resolve the market to Yes.
- Establishing a consulate or liaison office without the formal status and language of recognition does not qualify.
- Trade offices, cultural centers, or other non-embassy missions are insufficient.
- Participation alongside the entity in international conferences, humanitarian aid missions, or multilateral forums does not in itself constitute recognition as a sovereign state.
Offene Märkte
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- 24h-Volumen
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- JD Vance-0.1pt21%
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- Democrats sweep+1.0pt60.6%
- D-House, R-Senate+1.0pt30.3%
- Republicans sweep-0.3pt8.1%
+1 weitere Ergebnisse
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- December 31+0.4pt4%
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- April 300%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
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- September 30+4.6pt100%
- October 31+3.3pt100%
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+3 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHILos Angeles Mayor winner?
- Karen Bass-7.0pt56%
- Nithya Raman+6.0pt44%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 28,9 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 537.179,8 €
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
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- Ohio Senate winner?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Trump x Greenland deal signed by which date?
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- US-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will Trump recognize Taiwan??
- Kalshi bewertet Before 2027 mit 22% (Stand: 22. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will Trump recognize Taiwan? entschieden?
- Will Trump recognize Taiwan? soll am 1. Januar 2027 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will Trump recognize Taiwan? abgerechnet?
- Kalshi rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: If the United States explicitly and formally recognizes the Republic of China as a sovereign state independent from any previously recognized country after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, the market resolves to Yes.