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  1. Prognosemärkte
  2. US Politics
  3. Will Trump recognize Taiwan?
Will Trump recognize Taiwan?

Will Trump recognize Taiwan?

One-OffUS PoliticsChinaGeopolitik2J
KalshiKalshiVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlich2% Gebühr
Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Before Jan 20, 2029
Before Jan 20, 2029 18%
Marktqualitat

28 / 100

Niedrige Qualität
24h-Volumen

1 €

Liquidität

86,7 €

Niedrige Liquidität
Geld / Brief

13.0% / 18.0%

Spread

38.5%

Breiter Spread
Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 1 Minute

18. Dez. 24, 15:0020. Jan. 29, 15:00

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit

Gewähltes Ergebnis

Before Jan 20, 202918%

Regeln

If the United States explicitly and formally recognizes the Republic of China as a sovereign state independent from any previously recognized country after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • This could include: opening a U.S. embassy with the Republic of China, accepting an ambassador from the Republic of China, including the entity as an independent country in U.S.
  • Department of State country lists, or signing a formal treaty, bilateral agreement, or communique that explicitly identifies the Republic of China as an independent and sovereign state.
  • Merely acknowledging a governing authority exists, without recognizing its authority, is insufficient to resolve the market to Yes.
  • Establishing a consulate or liaison office without the formal status and language of recognition does not qualify.
  • Trade offices, cultural centers, or other non-embassy missions are insufficient.

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China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

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China coup attempt before 2027?

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Which country will build the first Military Space Station?

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Lai Ching-te departure announced?

Lai Ching-te departure announced?

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Before July 1, 2026: 1%KalshiKALSHI
Manifold Markets

How many times will the Trump admin and/or NVIDIA flip-flop on giving NVIDIA chips to China before 2028? (fun)

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10-15: 31.4%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS

In diesen Themen aktiv

BitcoinBTC$62,638.15+2.21%EthereumETH$1,649.96+1.51%SolanaSOL$65.11+1.46%DogecoinDOGE$0.0849+1.50%XRPXRP$1.12+0.13%BNBBNB$595.17+1.48%

Verwandte Nachrichten

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Regeln

If the United States explicitly and formally recognizes the Republic of China as a sovereign state independent from any previously recognized country after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • This could include: opening a U.S. embassy with the Republic of China, accepting an ambassador from the Republic of China, including the entity as an independent country in U.S.
  • Department of State country lists, or signing a formal treaty, bilateral agreement, or communique that explicitly identifies the Republic of China as an independent and sovereign state.
  • Merely acknowledging a governing authority exists, without recognizing its authority, is insufficient to resolve the market to Yes.
  • Establishing a consulate or liaison office without the formal status and language of recognition does not qualify.
  • Trade offices, cultural centers, or other non-embassy missions are insufficient.