KalshiVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlichVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätNicht aussagekräftig bepreist
Daten vom 22.10.2026, 22:17 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Mittelwert des gewählten Orderbuchs
Before Jul 1, 2027 · —
Gewähltes Orderbuch wird geladen…
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Gespeicherter Preis
Before Jul 1, 2027 94.5%Führend unter 5 Optionen
Before Jul 1, 2027 94.5%Marktqualitat
34 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
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Open Interest
0 $
Open Interest unbekanntGeld / Brief
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Before Jul 1, 2027Spread
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Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 18 Minuten
21. Okt. 26, 20:05 UTC1. Dez. 26, 04:59 UTC
Chart und Änderungen zeigen gespeicherte historische Wahrscheinlichkeiten, nicht das gewählte aktuelle Orderbuch.
Trends
Gewählte Zeile: Orderbuch-Mittelwert. Andere Zeilen: gespeicherte, ggf. normalisierte Referenzwerte; 24h-Änderungen basieren auf gespeicherter Historie.
Handelsplatzbedingungen
Quelle: Kalshi
Diese Angaben dienen der Information; für den simulierten Handel bei CoinRithm gelten eigene Regeln.
- Vorzeitige Schließung:
- Ja
- Abrechnungsfrist:
- 30m (unverbindliche Angabe)
Markttiefe · Before Jul 1, 2027
Gewähltes Orderbuch wird geladen…
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Regeln
If Sébastien Lecornu leaves (or announces he will leave) as Prime Minister of France before May 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Abwicklung über:Gouvernement de la République françaisePrésidence de la Républiquethe Journal officiel de la République françaiseReutersthe Associated PressBloomberg NewsThe Wall Street JournalThe Washington Postthe New York TimesPoliticoCNNFox News
- This market resolves based on when the departure is publicly announced or officially communicated, regardless of the effective date. A resignation tendered by Sébastien Lecornu counts when it is announced or tendered. This includes the resignation of the Government that Article 50 of the French Constitution requires after the Assemblée nationale adopts a motion of censure or withholds its confidence, and the customary resignation of the Government after a presidential election. It counts even if he continues to handle current affairs until a successor is named, and even if he is named Prime Minister again afterwards. The following do NOT resolve this market to YES: A statement that Sébastien Lecornu is not a candidate in the 2027 presidential election, or that governments customarily resign after a presidential election, unless it also says he will leave office. A motion of censure or a confidence vote that the Assemblée nationale does not adopt. A dissolution of the Assemblée nationale, on its own. A resignation that the President declines, so that the Government's functions do not end. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role. This includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.
Regeln für jedes Ergebnis
- Before Jul 1, 2027
- If Sébastien Lecornu leaves (or announces he will leave) as Prime Minister of France before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before May 1, 2027
- If Sébastien Lecornu leaves (or announces he will leave) as Prime Minister of France before May 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Mar 1, 2027
- If Sébastien Lecornu leaves (or announces he will leave) as Prime Minister of France before Mar 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- If Sébastien Lecornu leaves (or announces he will leave) as Prime Minister of France before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Dec 1, 2026
- If Sébastien Lecornu leaves (or announces he will leave) as Prime Minister of France before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
