KalshiGeschlossenVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlichVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertDieser Markt wurde entschieden: At least 25% (98%)
Entschieden: 09.10.2026, 05:08
Vom Anbieter verifizierte Auflösung
CoinRithm hat anbietergestützte Nachweise für Gewinner und Auflösungszeit dieses Marktes.
Warnung zur DatenqualitätVeraltete Daten
Daten vom 09.10.2026, 05:00 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Wahrscheinlichkeitsverlauf
At least 30%99%
At least 25%87%
At least 5%0%
At least 10%0%
At least 40%10%
At least 20%99%
At least 30%Verloren
At least 20%Verloren
At least 25%Gewonnen
At least 15%Verloren
At least 40%Verloren
At least 35%Verloren
At least 5%Verloren
At least 10%Verloren
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
If Zack Polanski is leader of the Green Party going into the next UK election, will the PM be Green?
Manifold MarketsIf Zack Polanski is not leader of the Green Party going into the next UK election, will the PM be Green?
Manifold MarketsWill the New Zealand Green Party get 15.00% of the party vote or more at the 2026 Election?
Manifold MarketsIf the PM after the next election is Green, will hitting children be banned in England within 5 years?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
Archivierte Regeln auf Ereignisebene. Die genauen Bedingungen für jedes Ergebnis sind nicht mehr verfügbar.
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Green Party in the 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election is 5% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Abwicklung über:London Borough of Camden
- The percentage is (votes received by the party ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded.
- Except as provided in the Fully-Conducted Elections provision, use certified/official results; qualifying unofficial results may be used only under that provision.
- Write-in votes in the result are included.
- Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from numerator and denominator.
- If multiple rounds occur, use the specified round or first round if none is specified.
