KalshiVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlich2% GebührVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGrob kalibriertAktuelle implizite WahrscheinlichkeitBefore September 1, 2026 5%-1.2ptFührend unter 4 Optionen
Marktqualitat
72 / 100
Mittlere Qualität24h-Volumen
721,9 €
Liquidität
256.283,7 €
Hohe LiquiditätGeld / Brief
1.0% / 2.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Enger SpreadMarktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 14 Minuten
12. Mai 26, 20:001. Aug. 26, 14:00
Trends
0%
Nur virtuelles Guthaben – kein echtes GeldKeine Finanzberatung
Gewähltes Ergebnis
Before August 1, 20262%
Plattformen vergleichen· Before September 1, 2026
Sortiert nach Marktqualität, dann Liquidität und 24-h-Volumen| Plattform | Qualität | Wahrscheinlichkeit | vs. Referenz | 24h Vol | Liq | Aktualität | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiDiese SeiteBeste insgesamt | Mittel | 5% | — | 721,9 € | 256.283,7 € | vor 14 Minuten | |
 Polymarket80% Übereinstimmung · geprüft | Mittel | 30% | — | 569,3 € | 14.912,4 € | vor 14 Minuten | Öffnen → |
Auch verfügbar auf Polymarket
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by which date?
0.5 ptsGeschlossen
-0.5pt30%
-0.2pt0%
0%
62 • Mittlere QualitätMittlerer SpreadMittlere LiquiditätHohe Mehrdeutigkeit
Gesamtvolumen1,8 Mio. €
24h-Volumen569,3 €
POLYMARKETRegeln
If Miguel Díaz-Canel leaves office before June 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- An announcement that the Miguel Díaz-Canel will leave the office within the next year is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion.
- If Miguel Díaz-Canel leaves solely because they have died, the associated market will resolve and the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price (prior to the death).
- If a last traded price is not available or is not logically consistent, or if the Exchange determines at its sole discretion that the last traded prices prior to death do not represent a fair settlement value, the Outcome Review Committee will be responsible for making a binding determination of fair allocation.
- Clarification (05/23/26): To clarify, Miguel Díaz-Canel currently holds two positions relevant to this market: First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba and President of Cuba.
- For purposes of this contract, departure from either position will satisfy the Payout Criterion.
Wahrscheinlichkeiten können aufgrund unterschiedlicher Marktstrukturen, Gebühren und Teilnehmerpools abweichen.
Volumentrend
$8222. Juli26T Daten27. Juli
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If Miguel Díaz-Canel leaves office before June 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- An announcement that the Miguel Díaz-Canel will leave the office within the next year is also encompassed by the Payout Criterion.
- If Miguel Díaz-Canel leaves solely because they have died, the associated market will resolve and the Exchange will determine the payouts to the holders of long and short positions based upon the last traded price (prior to the death).
- If a last traded price is not available or is not logically consistent, or if the Exchange determines at its sole discretion that the last traded prices prior to death do not represent a fair settlement value, the Outcome Review Committee will be responsible for making a binding determination of fair allocation.
- Clarification (05/23/26): To clarify, Miguel Díaz-Canel currently holds two positions relevant to this market: First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba and President of Cuba.
- For purposes of this contract, departure from either position will satisfy the Payout Criterion.