KalshiGeschlossenVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlich2% GebührVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertDieser Markt wurde entschieden: Reform UK, ≥15% (98%)
Entschieden: 14.08.2026, 14:28
Vom Anbieter verifizierte Auflösung
CoinRithm hat anbietergestützte Nachweise für Gewinner und Auflösungszeit dieses Marktes.
Warnung zur DatenqualitätVeraltete Daten
Daten vom 14.08.2026, 13:40 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-3
Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Reform UK, ≥20% 99%+4.0ptFührend unter 16 Optionen
Marktqualitat
38 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
48.598 €
Liquidität
100.518,1 €
Hohe LiquiditätMarktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 18 Tagen
Veraltet7. Juli 26, 23:008. Juli 27, 14:00
Wahrscheinlichkeitsverlauf
Reform UK, ≥50%52%
Reform UK, ≥45%5%
Reform UK, ≥60%27%
Reform UK, ≥65%15%
Reform UK, ≥70%6%
99%
99%
99%
99%
99%
99%
98%
6%
5%
3%
2%
2%
1%
1%
1%
1%
Regeln
If the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election falls within 5% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
Abwicklung über:Tendring District Council
- The margin of victory is the vote share received by Reform UK minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Reform UK if Reform UK wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Reform UK loses.
- If Reform UK wins, the margin will be positive; if Reform UK loses, the margin will be negative; if Reform UK ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.
- Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied.
- For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.
- If Reform UK runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.
