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  1. Prognosemärkte
  2. Regulierung
  3. Will the carried interest loophole be closed?
Will the carried interest loophole be closed?

Will the carried interest loophole be closed?

RegulierungOne-OffPolitikUS Politics6Mon
KalshiKalshiVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlich2% Gebühr
Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Before Jan 1, 2027
Before Jan 1, 2027 8%
Führend unter 4 Optionen
Marktqualitat

24 / 100

Niedrige Qualität
24h-Volumen

0 €

Liquidität

0 €

Niedrige Liquidität
Geld / Brief

2.0% / 24.0%

Spread

1100.0%

Breiter Spread
Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 4 Minuten

14. Mai 26, 20:001. Jan. 27, 15:00

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit
Before Jan 1, 2028
Before Jan 1, 2028
0%
Before Jan 1, 2029
Before Jan 1, 2029
0%
Before Jan 1, 2030
Before Jan 1, 2030
0%

Gewähltes Ergebnis

Before Jan 1, 20278%

Regeln

If legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • To qualify, the legislation must mandate that carried interest be taxed at a rate equal to or greater than ordinary income rates.
  • The legislation will trigger a Yes resolution even if this change only applies to taxpayers above a certain income threshold (e.g., individuals earning over $400,000).
  • Minor adjustments to the required holding period (e.g., extending the current 3-year rule under Section 1061) will not suffice for a Yes resolution.
  • The bill must pass the full chamber (not just committee) for House or Senate passage.
  • For "become law" markets, the bill must be signed by the President or become law through veto override.

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In diesen Themen aktiv

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Regeln

If legislation that amends the Internal Revenue Code to effectively eliminate the long-term capital gains tax preference for carried interest (applicable partnership interests) has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • To qualify, the legislation must mandate that carried interest be taxed at a rate equal to or greater than ordinary income rates.
  • The legislation will trigger a Yes resolution even if this change only applies to taxpayers above a certain income threshold (e.g., individuals earning over $400,000).
  • Minor adjustments to the required holding period (e.g., extending the current 3-year rule under Section 1061) will not suffice for a Yes resolution.
  • The bill must pass the full chamber (not just committee) for House or Senate passage.
  • For "become law" markets, the bill must be signed by the President or become law through veto override.