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Daten vom 26.10.2026, 17:38 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Mittelwert des gewählten Orderbuchs
Before Oct 1, 2027 · —
Gewähltes Orderbuch wird geladen…
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Gespeicherter Preis
Before Oct 1, 2027 55%Führend unter 6 Optionen
Before Oct 1, 2027 55%Marktqualitat
61 / 100
Mittlere Qualität24h-Volumen
5101,6 €
Open Interest
82.778,6 $
Hohes Open InterestGeld / Brief
— / —
Before Oct 1, 2027Spread
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Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 1 Stunde
Verzogert30. Juni 26, 15:17 UTC1. Jan. 27, 04:59 UTC
Chart und Änderungen zeigen gespeicherte historische Wahrscheinlichkeiten, nicht das gewählte aktuelle Orderbuch.
Trends
Gewählte Zeile: Orderbuch-Mittelwert. Andere Zeilen: gespeicherte, ggf. normalisierte Referenzwerte; 24h-Änderungen basieren auf gespeicherter Historie.
Before Oct 1, 2026Verloren
Handelsplatzbedingungen
Quelle: Kalshi
Diese Angaben dienen der Information; für den simulierten Handel bei CoinRithm gelten eigene Regeln.
- Vorzeitige Schließung:
- Ja
- Abrechnungsfrist:
- 30m (unverbindliche Angabe)
Markttiefe · Before Oct 1, 2027
Gewähltes Orderbuch wird geladen…
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by which date?
LimitlessWill Samuel Alito leave Supreme Court in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Justice Samuel Alito announce his retirement from the Supreme Court?
FutuurWill Samuel Alito leave the Supreme Court before the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsFed Decision in October?
PolymarketWhich party will win the House in 2026?
PolymarketRegeln
If Samuel Alito retires as Supreme Court justice before Oct 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- This market resolves based on when the departure is publicly announced or officially communicated, regardless of the effective date. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.
Regeln für jedes Ergebnis
- Before Oct 1, 2027
- If Samuel Alito retires as Supreme Court justice before Oct 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jul 1, 2027
- If Samuel Alito retires as Supreme Court justice before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2028
- If Samuel Alito retires as Supreme Court justice before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- If Samuel Alito retires as Supreme Court justice before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Apr 1, 2027
- If Samuel Alito retires as Supreme Court justice before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Oct 1, 2026
- If Samuel Alito retires as Supreme Court justice before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.