PolymarketKullanılabilirliği kontrol etKYC yok%2 ücretDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiİyi kalibreGüncel ima edilen olasılık
Evet 92%+0.2pt
Piyasa kalitesi
≤49 / 100
Düşük kalite24s Hacim
—
Likidite
₺88,7 B
Düşük likiditeAlış / Satış
91.6% / 93.3%
Spread
1.7 pt
Dar spreadYorumlar
0
7g Değişim
-0.4 pts
Piyasa verileri
4 dakika önce güncellendi
24 Tem 26 16:36 UTC1 Nis 27 03:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will this El Niño be the strongest ever recorded?
Manifold MarketsWhat will the peak RONI value for El Niño be during the NDJ 2026-27 season?
KalshiWhat will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?
PolymarketWill Southern California experience snow this winter?
Manifold MarketsWhat will the peak RONI value be during the 2026-27 El Niño season?
KalshiWhen will Beaver Creek Resort open for the 26/27 winter season?
KalshiKurallar
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
- A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season.
- An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
- This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season.
- If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
Açık piyasalar
WeatherKALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Minneapolis+9.0pt99%
- Miami-9.0pt73%
- New Orleans-8.0pt58%
+19 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺5,8 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺5,5 Mn
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above60.2%
- 88° to 89°23.3%
- 86° to 87°13.6%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺5,6 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺5,4 Mn
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°53.3%
- 82° to 83°34.6%
- 79° or below8.4%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺1,7 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺1,6 Mn
KALSHIHighest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° to 91°54.7%
- 92° to 93°19.8%
- 88° to 89°16%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺1,5 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺1,5 Mn
KALSHIWill a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026?
- No89%
- Yes-3.0pt11%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺3,3 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺1,2 Mn
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+1.6pt60.2%
- SpaceX-5.0pt37.8%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2%
+9 daha fazla sonuç
- Highest temperature in London on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Austin on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Dallas on September 9?
- Highest temperature in San Francisco on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Shanghai on September 9?
- Lowest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Paris on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Wellington on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Hong Kong on September 9?
- Highest temperature in Dallas on Sep 8, 2026?
Sık sorulan sorular
- Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Polymarket, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Yes için 92% fiyatlıyor.
- Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 1 Nisan 2027.
- Will there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Polymarket bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/.