What will the peak RONI value for El Niño be during the NDJ 2026-27 season?
3.0 puan (24s)Hava DurumuOne-Off5ay
KalshiKullanılabilirliği kontrol etKYC gerekliDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiİyi kalibreSeçili emir defteri orta fiyatı
At least 2.5°C · —
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Kayıtlı fiyat
At least 2.5°C 82.5%6 seçenek arasında lider
At least 2.5°C 82.5%Piyasa kalitesi
44 / 100
Düşük kalite24s Hacim
₺10,9 B
Açık pozisyon
$5,7 B
Orta açık pozisyonAlış / Satış
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At least 2.5°CSpread
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Piyasa verileri
4 dakika önce güncellendi
2 Tem 26 23:00 UTC5 Nis 27 14:00 UTC
Grafik ve değişimler, seçili canlı emir defterini değil kayıtlı geçmiş olasılıkları gösterir.
Trendler
Seçili satır: emir defteri orta fiyatı. Diğer satırlar: normalleştirilmiş olabilen kayıtlı referanslar; 24 saatlik değişimler kayıtlı geçmişi kullanır.
İşlem platformu koşulları
Kaynak: Kalshi
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- Erken kapanış:
- Evet
- Sonuçlandırma süresi:
- 30m (bilgi amaçlı)
Piyasa derinliği · At least 2.5°C
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
What will the peak RONI value be during the 2026-27 El Niño season?
KalshiWhat will the peak RONI value be for the NDJ 2026-27 quarter?
KalshiWhat will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?
PolymarketWill this El Niño be the strongest ever recorded?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?
PolymarketWill the 2026–27 El Niño be the strongest on record?
PolymarketKurallar
If the peak RONI value during the NDJ 2026-27 season is at least 2.5°C, then the market resolves to Yes.
Uzlaşma kaynağı:NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
- The peak RONI value is determined solely from values published in the NOAA CPC official RONI table that are designated as final (non-preliminary). For La Niña contracts, the peak RONI value refers to the single most negative (i.e., lowest) RONI value. The latest Expiration Date shall be one week after the Source Agency publishes the final RONI value for the last three-month period falling within the time period. However, if the peak RONI value necessary to determine the Market Outcome can be conclusively established prior to that date (e.g., the season has formally ended and all relevant values are final), expiration may be moved to an earlier date and time.
Her sonucun kuralı
- At least 2.5°C
- If the peak RONI value during the NDJ 2026-27 season is at least 2.5°C, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 2.0°C to 2.4°C
- If the peak RONI value during the NDJ 2026-27 season is between 2.0 and 2.4°C, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 1.0°C to 1.4°C
- If the peak RONI value during the NDJ 2026-27 season is between 1.0 and 1.4°C, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 1.5°C to 1.9°C
- If the peak RONI value during the NDJ 2026-27 season is between 1.5 and 1.9°C, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 0.5°C to 0.9°C
- If the peak RONI value during the NDJ 2026-27 season is between 0.5 and 0.9°C, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Below 0.5°C
- If the peak RONI value during the NDJ 2026-27 season is below 0.5°C, then the market resolves to Yes.