European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by...?
0.5% (24s)JeopolitikOne-OffRussia / UkraineChinaEurope5ay
PolymarketKullanılabilirliği kontrol etKYC yok%2 ücretDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreVeri kalitesi uyarısıCanlı kotasyon yok
25 Tem 2026 00:10 UTC itibarıyla veriler · politika pm-quality-2
Güncel ima edilen olasılıkDecember 31 12%+0.5%
Piyasa kalitesi
40 / 100
Düşük kalite24s Hacim
₺0
Likidite
₺603,2 B
Orta likiditeAlis / Satis
10.0% / 13.0%
Spread
30.0%
Geniş spread7g Değişim
+4.5%
Piyasa verileri
17 dakika önce guncellendi
28 Ara 25 23:0731 Ara 26 0:00
Trendler
0%
Yalnızca sanal bakiye, gerçek para yokYatırım tavsiyesi değildir
Seçilen sonuç
December 3112%
Hacim trendi
$1202 Tem23g veri24 Tem
İlgili Piyasalar
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
₺46 BEvet: 74%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?
₺0Evet: 14%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Which AI Hardware Governance Scenarios Will Come True?
₺1,5 BLocation Verification for US Export Controls by 2028: The US enacts location verification requirements for exported chips before 2028 (enforcement may not begin until afterward): 8%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Will any of the UN’s Security Council permanent members leave the Non-Proliferation Treaty by the end of 2026?
₺0Evet: 13%FUTUUR
FUTUURWhich country will build the first Military Space Station?
₺14,8 BUSA: 46.4%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWhat country will detonate the next nuclear weapon?
₺3,6 BOther: 0.2%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSBu konularda aktif
İlgili Haberler
Russia’s parliament passes crypto market law with $3,800 annual cap for retail investorsCoindesk
Russia is legalizing crypto for everyone except RussiansCrypto News
Polymarket: US invasion of Iran odds jump to 23.5% after Jordan base claimBlockchain.News
Polymarket prices China–Japan clash at 7.5% after ICC dispute spotlights TokyoBlockchain.News
Polymarket lifts US-Iran invasion odds to 18.5% after blockade, strikesBlockchain.NewsPolymarket: Iran regime-fall odds dip to 9.5% despite escalation reportBlockchain.NewsKurallar
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European country formally commits to giving Ukraine a security guarantee, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the relevant European country and the Government of Ukraine which creates a binding obligation for the relevant European country to defend or directly intervene on Ukraine’s behalf, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
- A qualifying “security guarantee” requires language that is equivalent in character to a NATO Article 5–style mutual defense commitment: the relevant European country must commit to responding militarily if Ukraine is attacked, or otherwise guarantee Ukraine’s defense through binding defense obligations.
- Examples of qualifying language include commitments modeled on the US treaties with Japan, South Korea, or the Philippines, or NATO's Article 5 instrument, which obligates the United States to “act to meet the common danger” through military force if an ally is attacked.
- Cooperative frameworks, capacity-building measures, consultative mechanisms, or nonbinding pledges will not qualify.
- Examples of non-qualifying arrangements include the June 13, 2024 US–Ukraine bilateral security agreement, the Taiwan Relations Act, or G7/EU “security arrangements” that provide support or consultation but stop short of binding defense guarantees.