Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027?

Jeopolitik

MetaculusKapalıDoğrulanmamış sonuçlanma verisi

Bu piyasa sonuçlandı: No (99.9%)

Doğrulanmamış sonuç verisi

Bu sonuç çıkarımsaldır veya sağlayıcı düzeyinde sonuç kanıtıyla desteklenmez.

Güncel topluluk tahmini

Hayır 99.9%

Tahminciler

978

Soru türü

binary

Yöntem

Community forecast

Kaynak türü

Tahmin

Piyasa verileri

92 gün önce guncellendi

Guncelligini yitirmis

15 Kas 16 19:4631 Oca 27 23:59

Olasılık Zaman Çizelgesi

Yes0.1%

No99.9%

Sonuç24sOlasılık

Evet

0.1%

Hayır

99.9%

Bu piyasa kapandı. Deneme işlemi yalnızca açık piyasalarda kullanılabilir.

Kurallar

Anti-European sentiment is running strong in the EU and it may grow stronger – strong enough to destroy it, maybe? The UK voted for Brexit and political pundits are already discussing [Nexit](http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/717904/Nexit-Dutch-turn-right-euroscepticism-Geert-Wilders-Mark-Rutte), [Frexit](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/27/frexit-nexit-or-oexit-who-will-be-next-to-leave-the-eu) and [Quitaly](https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2016/jul/26/italy-economy-banks-loans-crisis-europe).

Some commentators argue that Brexit is already the end of the EU as we know it, some would say that Brexit may be fine but if any other country was to leave would spell the end of the union.
We choose an even stricter criterion by requiring then one of the [6 original founders of the ECSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inner_Six) leave the union to decree the end of the EU as we know it.
This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, one or more of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany triggers Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon by notifying the European Council of its intention to leave the union.
It also resolves as positive if by the same deadline the entity called European Union has dissolved completely or dissolved to create a new politico-economic union of some European nations under a different name

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Kurallar

Some commentators argue that Brexit is already the end of the EU as we know it, some would say that Brexit may be fine but if any other country was to leave would spell the end of the union.
We choose an even stricter criterion by requiring then one of the [6 original founders of the ECSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inner_Six) leave the union to decree the end of the EU as we know it.
This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, one or more of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany triggers Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon by notifying the European Council of its intention to leave the union.
It also resolves as positive if by the same deadline the entity called European Union has dissolved completely or dissolved to create a new politico-economic union of some European nations under a different name

Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027?

Jeopolitik

MetaculusKapalıDoğrulanmamış sonuçlanma verisi

Bu piyasa sonuçlandı: No (99.9%)

Doğrulanmamış sonuç verisi

Bu sonuç çıkarımsaldır veya sağlayıcı düzeyinde sonuç kanıtıyla desteklenmez.

Güncel topluluk tahmini

Hayır 99.9%

Tahminciler

978

Soru türü

binary

Yöntem

Community forecast

Kaynak türü

Tahmin

Piyasa verileri

92 gün önce guncellendi

Guncelligini yitirmis

15 Kas 16 19:4631 Oca 27 23:59

Olasılık Zaman Çizelgesi

Yes0.1%

No99.9%

Sonuç24sOlasılık

Evet

0.1%

Hayır

99.9%

Bu piyasa kapandı. Deneme işlemi yalnızca açık piyasalarda kullanılabilir.

Kurallar

Some commentators argue that Brexit is already the end of the EU as we know it, some would say that Brexit may be fine but if any other country was to leave would spell the end of the union.
We choose an even stricter criterion by requiring then one of the [6 original founders of the ECSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inner_Six) leave the union to decree the end of the EU as we know it.
This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, one or more of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany triggers Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon by notifying the European Council of its intention to leave the union.
It also resolves as positive if by the same deadline the entity called European Union has dissolved completely or dissolved to create a new politico-economic union of some European nations under a different name

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US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by which date?

₺42,3 Mn

July 31: 100%

POLYMARKET

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

₺34 Mn

Evet: 0%

POLYMARKET

US-Iran nuclear deal?

₺4,6 Mn

Before Aug 1, 2026: 0%

KALSHI

Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?

₺445,5 B

Anthony Fauci: 14%

KALSHI

Will Ukraine take back Melitopol by the end of 2026?

₺379,2 B

Evet: 4%

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Bu konularda aktif

BitcoinBTC$64,537.69+1.61%

EthereumETH$1,921.66+2.02%

SolanaSOL$74.23+1.19%

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Polymarket lifts US-Iran invasion odds to 18.5% after blockade, strikesBlockchain.News

Polymarket: Iran regime-fall odds dip to 9.5% despite escalation reportBlockchain.News

Polymarket: Hormuz traffic 'Yes' sinks to 1.15% after Trump strike threatBlockchain.News

US freezes $131M in Iran-linked crypto as Middle East tensions riseCointelegraph

Kurallar

Some commentators argue that Brexit is already the end of the EU as we know it, some would say that Brexit may be fine but if any other country was to leave would spell the end of the union.
We choose an even stricter criterion by requiring then one of the [6 original founders of the ECSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inner_Six) leave the union to decree the end of the EU as we know it.
This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, one or more of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany triggers Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon by notifying the European Council of its intention to leave the union.
It also resolves as positive if by the same deadline the entity called European Union has dissolved completely or dissolved to create a new politico-economic union of some European nations under a different name