Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027?
JeopolitikMetaculusKapalıDoğrulanmamış sonuçlanma verisiBu piyasa sonuçlandı: No
Doğrulanmamış sonuç verisi
Bu sonuç çıkarımsaldır veya sağlayıcı düzeyinde sonuç kanıtıyla desteklenmez.
Güncel topluluk tahminiHayır 99.9%
Tahminciler
978
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Community forecast
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
146 gün önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis15 Kas 16 19:46 UTC31 Oca 27 23:59 UTC
Olasılık Zaman Çizelgesi
Yes0.1%
No99.9%
99.9%
0.1%
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Kurallar
Anti-European sentiment is running strong in the EU and it may grow stronger – strong enough to destroy it, maybe? The UK voted for Brexit and political pundits are already discussing [Nexit](http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/717904/Nexit-Dutch-turn-right-euroscepticism-Geert-Wilders-Mark-Rutte), [Frexit](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/27/frexit-nexit-or-oexit-who-will-be-next-to-leave-the-eu) and [Quitaly](https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2016/jul/26/italy-economy-banks-loans-crisis-europe).
- Some commentators argue that Brexit is already the end of the EU as we know it, some would say that Brexit may be fine but if any other country was to leave would spell the end of the union.
- We choose an even stricter criterion by requiring then one of the [6 original founders of the ECSC](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inner_Six) leave the union to decree the end of the EU as we know it.
- This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, one or more of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany triggers Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon by notifying the European Council of its intention to leave the union.
- It also resolves as positive if by the same deadline the entity called European Union has dissolved completely or dissolved to create a new politico-economic union of some European nations under a different name
Sık sorulan sorular
- Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Metaculus, 27 Nisan 2026 itibarıyla No için 100% fiyatlıyor.
- Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Ocak 2027.
- Will any of Belgium, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, and/or Germany leave the EU before 2027? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Metaculus bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Anti-European sentiment is running strong in the EU and it may grow stronger – strong enough to destroy it, maybe? The UK voted for Brexit and political pundits are already discussing [Nexit](http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/717904/Nexit-Dutch-turn-right-euroscepticism-Geert-Wilders-Mark-Rutte), [Frexit](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/27/frexit-nexit-or-oexit-who-will-be-next-to-leave-the-eu) and [Quitaly](https://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2016/jul/26/italy-economy-banks-loans-crisis-europe).