Yemen fragmented into 2 or more internationally recognized countries by EOY 2028?
PolitikaOne-OffJeopolitikOrta Doğu2yManifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiİyi kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiPartial - De facto separation exists but no formal international recognition by EOY 2028 64%3 seçenek arasında lider
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Tahmin
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Piyasa verileri
13 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis6 Oca 26 07:42 UTC1 Oca 29 18:29 UTC
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Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves based on the international recognition status of Yemen's political entities by December 31, 2028:
- Yes: Two or more independent states achieve formal international recognition (e.g., UN membership, diplomatic recognition from major powers).
- This includes scenarios where South Arabia, a Houthi state, or other entities gain recognized statehood.
- Partial: De facto territorial separation exists with functioning parallel governments and institutions, but no formal international recognition of independent statehood is achieved.
- No: Yemen remains unified under a single internationally recognized government, regardless of internal fragmentation or de facto autonomous zones.
