Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiİyi kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 68.1%
Tahminciler
6
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
12 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis4 Eyl 25 22:10 UTC31 Ara 29 23:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will MDMA-assisted therapy for PTSD be approved by the FDA before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a vaccine for HIV be approved by the FDA by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a gene therapy that edits multiple genes using CRISPR be approved by the FDA before 2030?
Manifold MarketsBefore January 1st, 2030, will any treatment for celiac disease be approved by the FDA?
Manifold MarketsHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketWhen will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1?
KalshiKurallar
Resolution criteria
- Resolve YES if, by 11:59:59 pm Eastern Time on December 31, 2029, the U.S. FDA grants any marketing authorization for human use (approval, licensure, De Novo grant, or 510(k) clearance) to a product that fits this definition: a living, multicellular construct assembled ex vivo from animal or human cells, engineered to perform autonomous tasks in vivo (e.g., locomotion/drug delivery)—i.e., a “xenobot/biobot/anthrobot”-type product.
- Verification must appear in one of the FDA’s public databases: Drugs@FDA (NDAs/BLAs), Purple Book (licensed biologics), PMA, De Novo, or 510(k).
- Links: Drugs@FDA, Purple Book, PMA, De Novo, 510(k).
- (fda.gov, accessdata.fda.gov)
- EUAs, INDs/IDEs, in vitro–only/research-use-only authorizations, animal-use approvals, or products consisting solely of dissociated cells or live microbes (e.g., standard cellular therapies or live biotherapeutics) do NOT count.