Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiİyi kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 98%
Tahminciler
24
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
8 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis8 Kas 24 00:33 UTC20 Ağu 28 03:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will the Trade deficit of the US be 10% lower at the end of Trump’s 2nd term
Manifold MarketsWill Trump’s second presidential term NOT end exactly on January 20, 2029, due to war, emergency, impeachment, or other
Manifold MarketsWill Republicans lawmakers try to repeal the current presidential term limit before the 2028 election?
Manifold MarketsWill Bongbong Marcos declare martial law in his first presidential term?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump repeal Presidential term limits in 2026?
PolymarketLula to finish his presidential term?
FutuurKurallar
Resolution Criteria:
- TL;DR, will Trump be POTUS for ≥42 months and <43 months? Most of these criteria points are covering the corner cases.
- If I missed a corner case, and it happens, market resolves to best judgement.
- Struck-through items are no longer relevant and can be ignored.
- Assume EST time zones for all dates and times. "Exactly 42 months" is defined as the market window from Jul 20, 2028 to Aug 19, 2028, conservatively allowing until 11:59pm on the last day.
- If the inauguration is somehow delayed past Jan 20, 2025 by any number "n" days, shift these dates forward by n days.
