Will there be a prion disease outbreak in the United States before 2028 that kills more than 24 people?
Sağlık ve TıpOne-Off1y
Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 94.6%
Tahminciler
8
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
15 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis7 Eki 24 21:42 UTC2 Oca 28 07:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will at least one human be cured of a prion disease by EOY 2045?
Manifold MarketsIn the first event when AI kills at least 1,000 people, how many people will be killed?
Manifold Markets[Metaculus] Will there be a tsunami that kills at least 50,000 people before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a coup attempt that kills more than 100 people in any rich democracy before April 2123?
Manifold MarketsHow many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?
PolymarketHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketKurallar
Like this one in the UK in the 80s and 90s: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_BSE_outbreak
- Must be above base rate in some sense to be an outbreak.
