Will there be a coup attempt against Donald Trump during his second term?
PolitikaJeopolitikOne-OffUS PoliticsSeçim2y
Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahmini
Hayır 89.2%
Tahminciler
65
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
9 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis9 Kas 24 05:49 UTC22 Oca 29 07:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will the House of Representatives begin an impeachment of Donald Trump during his second term?
Manifold MarketsIf Republicans lose the 2028 presidential election, will they attempt a coup? [Broad definition]
Manifold MarketsWhat Will Happen During Trump's Second Term (2025-2029)?
Manifold MarketsIran coup attempt by which date?
PolymarketRussia coup attempt in 2026?
PolymarketChina coup attempt before 2027?
PolymarketKurallar
Since what counts as a "coup" and what is sufficient grounds for a coup to have been "attempted" are potentially tricky to adjudicate, I will use my best judgement when deciding edge cases.
- I am open to arguments and will aim to resolve according to the the spirit of the question.
- That being said, to provide some insight into what I will be looking for, I imagine that a "coup attempt" is a serious, deliberate effort to forcibly seize the federal executive branch of the United States.
- The effort may be successful or unsuccessful.
- This question resolves YES if a coup attempt is made against Donald Trump during his second term, and NO on 21 Jan 2029 if no coup attempt has occurred.
- This question may also resolve NO early if Donald Trump ceases to be US President and therefore it is not possible to coup him (e.g. death, resignation).
Açık piyasalar
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺34,1 Mr
- 24s Hacim
- ₺39,1 Mn
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.8pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.3pt1%
+16 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺34 Mr
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.3pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.2pt3%
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.2%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt15.2%
- Gavin Newsom-1.0pt14.1%
+45 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺10,3 Mr
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 daha fazla sonuç
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Sık sorulan sorular
- Will there be a coup attempt against Donald Trump during his second term? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 89% fiyatlıyor.
- Will there be a coup attempt against Donald Trump during his second term? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will there be a coup attempt against Donald Trump during his second term? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 22 Ocak 2029.
- Will there be a coup attempt against Donald Trump during his second term? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Since what counts as a "coup" and what is sufficient grounds for a coup to have been "attempted" are potentially tricky to adjudicate, I will use my best judgement when deciding edge cases.