Will the US implement a policy to track and license cutting-edge chips in large clusters by 2028?
One-OffRegülasyonTeknoloji2y
Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahmini
Hayır 57.8%
Hayır 57.8%Tahminciler
10
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
25 dakika önce güncellendi
28 Nis 23 13:54 UTC31 Ara 28 23:59 UTC
Trendler
Kurallar
This market will resolve to yes if the US creates a policy by 2028 to track stocks and flows of cutting-edge chips over a specific capability threshold and requires a license for assembling large masses of such chips.
- The policy aims to improve visibility into potentially dangerous clusters of compute, and ensure the effectiveness of other compute governance measures.
- Luke Muehlhauser from Open Philanthropy suggests this idea in his April 2023 post, "12 tentative ideas for US AI policy." This market idea was proposed by Michael Chen.
