Will the Swift Centre beat Polymarket?
JeopolitikOne-OffOrta DoğuRusya / UkraynaTeknolojiİş Dünyası ve Şirketler2ayManifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiEvet 78.5%
Tahminciler
19
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
8 dakika önce güncellendi
4 Şub 26 03:17 UTC1 Oca 27 03:13 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Was Hamas using Al-Shifa as a shield for a command centre?
Manifold MarketsWill Kalshi beat Polymarket?
Manifold MarketsWill the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?
Manifold MarketsRussia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?
PolymarketNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketWill there be a new(ly) major war involving a nuclear power before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsKurallar
Resolves YES if Swift Centre has a better Brier score than Polymarket, across their five forecasts.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- Context: Swift Centre claims that Polymarket is not the ultimate source of truth and that their forecasters can beat Polymarket.
- https://www.swiftcentre.org/publicforecasts/yk77y2zct07ttcl00lmuk2x2s629fh
- Here were their five forecasts:
- 1) The Swift Centre forecasters saw a ~4% chance of the United States acquiring Greenland in 2026, distinctly lower than the 12% that was on the relevant Polymarket question.