Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 94.6%
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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14 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis9 Haz 25 21:24 UTC1 Şub 27 04:59 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will Trump end the Russia-Ukraine war within 24 months of his inauguration?
Manifold MarketsThe End of the Russia–Ukraine War in 2026
Manifold MarketsUkraine war ends in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRussia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
PolymarketRussia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?
PolymarketRussia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by which date?
PolymarketKurallar
This should capture common sense intuitions around "war ends before the end of 2026".
- Resolves Yes if a formal peace agreement or armistice between Russia and Ukraine is signed before the end of 2026, and fighting between the major parties stops with no major flare-ups (>100 deaths) until the later of: the end of 2026, OR one month after it's signed.
- Temporary ceasefires that are later broken do not resolve yes.
- Temporary ceasefires that followed by a peace treaty do count, even if the treaty is signed after the end of '26, so long as fighting doesn't restart in the interim.
- A full agreement before the end of 2026, followed by a new war starting after 2026 still resolves Yes.
- Note: this means an agreement signed very late in 2026 must remain in effect for at least one month into 2027 for the market to resolve Yes.
Açık piyasalar
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+4.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.3pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.0pt3%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺1,3 Mr
- 24s Hacim
- ₺29,5 Mn
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.9pt47.8%
- October 31-3.0pt29.2%
- September 30-4.0pt12.4%
+17 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-5.0pt74%
- September 18-10.0pt67%
- September 11-2.5pt63%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.3pt1%
- July 310%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.1pt96%
- Yes+0.1pt4%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺2 Mr
- 24s Hacim
- ₺5,3 Mn
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
Sık sorulan sorular
- Will the Russia-Ukraine war end before the end of 2026? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 95% fiyatlıyor.
- Will the Russia-Ukraine war end before the end of 2026? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will the Russia-Ukraine war end before the end of 2026? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 1 Şubat 2027.
- Will the Russia-Ukraine war end before the end of 2026? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: This should capture common sense intuitions around "war ends before the end of 2026".