Will the Pentagon make a major planning/budget change against the F-35 by mid 2027
DogecoinOne-OffYZMemecoinPolitikaABD Siyaseti8ayManifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 81.5%
Tahminciler
2
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
14 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis16 Şub 25 01:11 UTC1 Tem 27 06:59 UTC
Kurallar
As judged by Us or by LLM, will the pentagon make a "very large", "major", "significant" change in their planning system AGAINST the F-35 program, by end date?
- Definition: major - reducing planned expenditure or commissioning of planes within this program by at least 40%, or equivalent.
- For example, if they cut immediate orders by 30% and cut post-2035 promised orders by 90%, we need to evaluate if on net that counts as "cutting all by 40% today".
- The change must happen and be legal or in progress, w/out future roadblocks which are in place. i.e. a law passed by the senate but not by the house which achieves this goal, but isn't confirmed, and is likely to fail, would not be enough to YES.
- But, if it were in a super strong position to pass, that would make a YES more likely.
- We will judge by the state of play at end of the date, and not earlier, even if it appears the change is already made and locked in, say in 2026.
