Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance?
YZOne-Off3ayManifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiEvet 82.9%
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Guncelligini yitirmis19 Ağu 25 21:10 UTC31 Ara 26 23:59 UTC
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BASELINE (2025 leader): The current leader as of Aug 2025 appears to be GPT-4.5 with ~90.2% on MMLU, with Claude 4 and Gemini 2.5 Pro at ~85-86%
- Top 7 LLMs Ranked in 2025: GPT-4o, Gemini, Claude & More.
- To establish the 2025 baseline:
- On Dec 31, 2025, identify the LLM with the highest average score across the "Core Benchmark Suite" (defined below)
- This becomes the baseline for calculating 10% improvement
- CORE BENCHMARK SUITE (to avoid cherry-picking):
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Sık sorulan sorular
- Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Yes için 83% fiyatlıyor.
- Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Aralık 2026.
- Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: BASELINE (2025 leader): The current leader as of Aug 2025 appears to be GPT-4.5 with ~90.2% on MMLU, with Claude 4 and Gemini 2.5 Pro at ~85-86%