Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiEvet 73.3%
Tahminciler
19
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
3 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis23 Haz 26 06:24 UTC31 Ara 26 23:59 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will Trump follow through on his power plant/bridge threats?
Manifold MarketsWill Taurus missiles hit the Kerch bridge before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by which date?
PolymarketWill a bridge across the Strait of Messina between mainland Italy and Sicily have started construction by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
KalshiWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketKurallar
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if the Crimean (Kerch Strait) Bridge sustains new, documented physical structural damage occurring between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC.
- "Physical structural damage" is defined as visible destruction, collapse, or severe degradation of the road or rail spans, supports, or pylons of the bridge (such as collapsed sections, craters in the roadway, or major structural fires on the rail spans).
- The damage must require physical repairs or result in a complete closure of at least one lane or track for at least 12 consecutive hours.
- To resolve to YES, the damage must be confirmed by at least two independent, reputable international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, The Guardian, Associated Press) or verified by satellite imagery (e.g., Maxar, Planet Labs).
- Precautionary or temporary closures of the bridge due to air raid alerts, smoke screens, or nearby strikes (such as on ferry crossings, oil terminals, or air defenses in nearby Kerch or Krasnodar) that do not cause direct physical damage to the bridge structure itself will not suffice for a YES resolution.
Açık piyasalar
Russia / UkrainePOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+1.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-0.1pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.2pt3%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺1,3 Mr
- 24s Hacim
- ₺19 Mn
POLYMARKETRussia Parliamentary Election Winner
- United Russia (ER)+0.3pt100%
- Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)-0.2pt0%
- A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)0%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETBank of Russia decision in September?
- No Change+2.0pt69.6%
- Decrease-0.5pt27.4%
- Increase2.9%
- Toplam Hacim
POLYMARKETRussia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?
- No+0.1pt99%
- Yes-0.1pt1%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺29,1 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺2,4 Mn
POLYMARKETPutin out as President of Russia by which date?
- June 30, 202714%
- December7%
- September 30,1%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺1,1 Mr
- 24s Hacim
POLYMARKETRussia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- December 31+7.5pt75%
- November 30+16.5pt73%
- October 31+19.0pt62%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
- Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
- Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?
- NATO x Russia military clash by which date?
- Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?
- Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
- Will Russia capture Orikhiv by which date?
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
- Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by which date?
Sık sorulan sorular
- Will the Crimean bridge be damaged in 2026? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 9 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Yes için 73% fiyatlıyor.
- Will the Crimean bridge be damaged in 2026? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will the Crimean bridge be damaged in 2026? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Aralık 2026.
- Will the Crimean bridge be damaged in 2026? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Resolution criteria