Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahmini
Hayır 54.6%
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59
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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6 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis16 Eyl 24 19:43 UTC31 Ara 26 22:59 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the ARC AGI Grand Prize be claimed before January 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be the highest score achieved on ARC-AGI-2 before 2027?
FutuurTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiKurallar
https://arcprize.org/leaderboard Achieve a performance of 85% or higher on the private set of Chollet's Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC), a challenging benchmark designed to test an AI's ability to solve abstract reasoning tasks with minimal prior knowledge.
- Even if the requirements for the grand prize change in 2025, this benchmark of >=85% performance will remain unchanged.
- Learn more about the competition here: https://arcprize.org/competition.
- 2025 version https://manifold.markets/JacobPfau/will-the-arcagi-grand-prize-be-clai-srb6t2awj1
- 2024 version https://manifold.markets/JacobPfau/will-the-arcagi-grand-prize-be-clai
Açık piyasalar
AI
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
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- 2027+3.5pt33%
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- Toplam Hacim
- ₺12,6 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺9 Mn
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-5.0pt69%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max-3.0pt3%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
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POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+2.5pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-0.5pt84%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+2.1pt59.6%
- ChatGPT-0.4pt25%
- Grok+0.6pt7.7%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺512,2 Mn
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-5.5pt66%
- 1490+-5.0pt56%
- 1500+-0.5pt28%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 daha fazla sonuç
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Sık sorulan sorular
- Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2026? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 55% fiyatlıyor.
- Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2026? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2026? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Aralık 2026.
- Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2026? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: https://arcprize.org/leaderboard Achieve a performance of 85% or higher on the private set of Chollet's Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC), a challenging benchmark designed to test an AI's ability to solve abstract reasoning tasks with minimal prior knowledge.