Will tailcalled think that the Shard Theory alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?
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The Shard Theory research program by Team Shard is based on the idea that we should directly study the what types of cognition/circuitry are encouraged by reinforcement learning, and reason mechanistically about how reward leads to them, rather than the classic Outer Alignment/Inner Alignment factorization which aims to create a reward function that matches human values and somehow give an AI a goal of maximizing that reward.
- A hope is that understanding how reward maps to behavior is more tractable than Outer Alignment/Inner Alignment, and that we therefore might be able to solve alignment without solving Outer Alignment/Inner Alignment.
- In 4 years, I will evaluate Shard Theory and decide whether there have been any important good results since today.
- I will probably ask some of the alignment researchers I most respect (such as John Wentworth or Steven Byrnes) for advice about the assessment, unless it is dead-obvious.
- About me: I have been following AI and alignment research on and off for years, and have a somewhat reasonable mathematical background to evaluate it.
- I tend to have an informal idea of the viability of various alignment proposals, though it's quite possible that idea might be wrong.
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Sık sorulan sorular
- Will tailcalled think that the Shard Theory alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 88% fiyatlıyor.
- Will tailcalled think that the Shard Theory alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will tailcalled think that the Shard Theory alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 20 Ekim 2026.
- Will tailcalled think that the Shard Theory alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: The Shard Theory research program by Team Shard is based on the idea that we should directly study the what types of cognition/circuitry are encouraged by reinforcement learning, and reason mechanistically about how reward leads to them, rather than the classic Outer Alignment/Inner Alignment factorization which aims to create a reward function that matches human values and somehow give an AI a goal of maximizing that reward.