Will Russia control at least 85% of the four annexed oblasts at the end of October 2026?
JeopolitikOne-OffRusya / Ukrayna3g
Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 95.4%
Tahminciler
18
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
9 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis10 Oca 26 22:39 UTC31 Eki 26 23:59 UTC
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Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve YES if the Russian Federation has de facto control of at least 85.00% of the area comprising the Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporozhye and Kherson oblasts at the close date.
- This market will resolve NO if the Russian Federation has de facto control of less than 85.00% of the area comprising the Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporozhye and Kherson oblasts at the close date.
- Resolution sources
- Should the Russia-Ukraine conflict reach a formal conclusion by the close date, the resolution of this market will be informed by a consensus of media reports, if one exists.
- If the conflict is ongoing at the close date, or the extent of Russia’s territorial control is uncertain, the market will resolve according to estimates obtained from the following sources:
