Güncel topluluk tahmini
Hayır 70.9%
Tahminciler
7
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
4 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis8 Nis 25 08:57 UTC1 Oca 30 00:00 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will Quantum computing break RSA encryption before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhich major technology company will make the most significant quantum computing breakthrough by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a quantum computing CEO go to jail before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill quantum computing be commonly used in commercial applications by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsHow many critical severity cyber vulnerabilities will be found in December 2026?
Manifold MarketsKurallar
This market assesses whether quantum computers will demonstrate a practical advantage in cryptographic applications before January 1, 2030.
- Resolution criteria: - YES: A quantum computer successfully breaks a currently secure encryption standard (like RSA-2048) OR demonstrates practical quantum-resistant cryptography capabilities that are deployed in production systems. - NO: No such practical advantage is demonstrated by the end of 2029.
- The achievement must be publicly verified by multiple reputable institutions.
