Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahmini
Evet 76%
Tahminciler
74
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
8 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis24 Mar 23 01:08 UTC1 Oca 30 05:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Contingent on AI being perceived as a threat, will humans deliberately cause an AI winter before 2030?
Manifold MarketsIn 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?
Manifold MarketsMulti year market: Will AI be as big a political issue as abortion?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiKurallar
For this market to resolve "YES":
- We need three major polls with a >50% "yes" response to some variant of the question "Do you feel AI is a threat to the human race" (not just to jobs).
- We need to see at least one such poll in three different OECD countries, and one of those has to be the United States.
- If we don't see three such polls before 2030, this market resolves NO.
Açık piyasalar
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-13.0pt62.4%
- 2027-13.0pt29.7%
- 2026-3.5pt7.9%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺13,6 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺7,4 Mn
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-0.5pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt57%
- ChatGPT+1.4pt26.2%
- Grok+2.5pt7.5%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺514,3 Mn
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+6.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+3.0pt5%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt5%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 daha fazla sonuç
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt79.1%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt11.8%
- Gemini2.7%
+4 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺19,7 Mn
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Tencent market share this week
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic market share this week
- OpenAI market share this week
- Most popular AI this week
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
Sık sorulan sorular
- Will polling show that humans perceive AI as a threat before 2030? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 9 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Yes için 76% fiyatlıyor.
- Will polling show that humans perceive AI as a threat before 2030? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will polling show that humans perceive AI as a threat before 2030? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 1 Ocak 2030.
- Will polling show that humans perceive AI as a threat before 2030? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: For this market to resolve "YES":