Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiİyi kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 91.1%
Tahminciler
11
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
3 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis14 Mar 26 21:10 UTC31 Ara 29 23:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
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FutuurWill the AfD officially join any German state-level governing coalition by December 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsKurallar
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves to YES if Poland officially completes its withdrawal from the European Union (per Article 50 of the TEU) before January 1, 2030.
- Resolution requires either a ratified withdrawal agreement or the expiration of the two-year notification period.
- The market resolves to NO if Poland remains a member state through December 31, 2029.
- Market Background: The 2026 Crisis
- While the 2023 elections brought a pro-EU coalition to power under Donald Tusk, the political landscape shifted dramatically following the June 2025 Presidential Election.
