Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiİyi kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 80.6%
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37
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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52 dakika önce güncellendi
Gecikmeli2 Kas 23 21:26 UTC2 Oca 27 04:59 UTC
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Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will Paul Christiano publicly announce a greater than 10% increase in his p(doom | AGI before 2100) within the next 5 years?
Manifold MarketsWill someone write the book "Paul Christiano and the Methods of Rationality" by EOY2045?
Manifold MarketsWill Paul Christiano play Starcraft 2 again and place as Gold League or higher by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Paul Christiano become a father by EOY 2031? #ChristianoBabby
Manifold MarketsWill Gavin Newsom declare their candidacy for US President by December 31, 2026?
ForecastExWill Gavin Newsom win the Democratic Nomination for US President in 2028?
ForecastExKurallar
Must be in relation to Paul's role in AI Safety, and must be a standing US president
- Resolves YES on any conclusive evidence that this has happened
