Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahmini
Hayır 68.3%
Hayır 68.3%Tahminciler
66
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
20 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis3 Ara 22 16:51 UTC1 Oca 29 05:59 UTC
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Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
US government bans an open source AI model in 2026?
PolymarketTop Open Source AI this week
KalshiWill the U.S. ban any open-source AI model in 2026?
KalshiWill open-source AI remain at least one year behind proprietary AI? (ACX, AI 2027 #4)
Manifold MarketsWill it take <=12 months for open-source AI forecasting to go from consistently worse than humans to broadly superhuman?
Manifold MarketsWill the US and/or China ban at least two open-source AI models before 2027?
Manifold MarketsKurallar
In total output, real-world use, plus prestige (open labs attracting the best talent)
- PROB resolution--2022 would have resolved ~70-80% YES
- Based on informed (and uninformed) comments, search trends, random Twitter hive minding, etc.