Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiEvet 97.1%
Tahminciler
11
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
11 dakika önce güncellendi
15 Eki 26 03:14 UTC16 Kas 26 07:59 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Who will publicly release the first language model to be credibly accused of being responsible for 100 deaths?
Manifold MarketsWhen will OpenAI release Astra 6.1?
KalshiWhen will OpenAI release a personal AI agent?
KalshiWhen will OpenAI release Astra 6.1?
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI release a social network in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI release a social network in 2026?
PolymarketKurallar
Resolves YES if, between market creation and November 15, 2026 11:59 PM Pacific, OpenAI makes a new language model available to the public in ChatGPT, the OpenAI API, or Codex.
- "New" means a model name or version that was not publicly available before this market opened (October 15, 2026).
- For example, a GPT-6.2 model, a new mini/nano or Codex variant with its own name, a new open-weight model, or a successor to Astra.
- Any text or coding model with a new name, including mini, nano, Pro and Codex variants.
- A public preview or a paid-tier-only release, as long as ordinary paying users or API customers can use it.
- New open-weight language models that OpenAI releases publicly.