Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiEvet 53%
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6
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
1 saat önce güncellendi
Gecikmeli6 Ağu 26 00:41 UTC6 Ağu 27 00:39 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will open-source models be more or less aligned one year from now?
Manifold MarketsWill closed source software go extinct within 5 years (2029)?
Manifold MarketsWill Adam optimizer no longer be the default optimizer for training the best open source models by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketKurallar
Inspired by Roon's tweet: roon (@tszzl) on X
- Partner Market on open-source models: https://manifold.markets/prismatic/will-opensource-models-be-more-or-l
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve based on my judgement; feel free to ask me questions in the comments or post supporting material.
- Resolves YES if MORE aligned.
- Resolves NO if LESS aligned.
Açık piyasalar
AIKALSHIOpen Source market share on Sep 14th
- Above 67.5%99%
- Above 70%+22.0pt99%
- Above 72.5%96%
+6 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺3,6 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺3,6 Mn
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027-3.0pt89%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-5.0pt86%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-6.0pt81%
+9 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+0.6pt68.3%
- ChatGPT-0.5pt16.4%
- Gemini+0.1pt6.7%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺535 Mn
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 15,-0.5pt85%
- December 31,-3.5pt84%
- November 30,-2.0pt76%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETWill any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
- 1510+45.5pt100%
- 1520-14.3pt77%
- 1530-0.1pt4%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude89.9%
- Gemini2.8%
- ChatGPT1.8%
+6 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺2 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺2 Mn
- Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- OpenAI market share this week
- AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
Sık sorulan sorular
- Will closed-source models be more or less aligned one year from now? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 15 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Yes için 53% fiyatlıyor.
- Will closed-source models be more or less aligned one year from now? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will closed-source models be more or less aligned one year from now? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 6 Ağustos 2027.
- Will closed-source models be more or less aligned one year from now? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Inspired by Roon's tweet: roon (@tszzl) on X