Will Adam optimizer no longer be the default optimizer for training the best open source models by the end of 2026?
One-OffYZ3ayManifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 68.4%
Tahminciler
35
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
1 saat önce güncellendi
Gecikmeli15 Kas 23 10:06 UTC31 Ara 26 23:30 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
US government bans an open source AI model in 2026?
PolymarketWill OpenAI release another open source LLM before end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhen will an open-source LLM be released with a better performance than GPT-4?
Manifold MarketsMinecraft: Java Edition becomes open source by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill an open-source AI model top the LMSYS Leaderboard at the end of 2026?
FutuurTop Open Source AI this week
KalshiKurallar
This market is quite similar to the following market.
- However, instead of focusing on the papers, it focuses a bit more on the practicality aspect by considering a mixture of the most commonly used models and the SOTA models at the end of 2026.
- I am including both Adam and close variants (e.g. AdamW).
- I will sample a mixture of open source best models in 2026.
- Not participating in this market in case judgement is required.
- If training details are not provided, can reach out to the creators of the models, if they decline, we move on and pick the next best thing
Açık piyasalar
AIKALSHIOpen Source market share on Sep 14th
- Above 67.5%99%
- Above 70%+22.0pt99%
- Above 72.5%96%
+6 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺3,6 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺3,6 Mn
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027-3.0pt89%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-5.0pt86%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-6.0pt81%
+9 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+0.6pt68.3%
- ChatGPT-0.5pt16.4%
- Gemini+0.1pt6.7%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺535 Mn
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 15,-0.5pt85%
- December 31,-3.5pt84%
- November 30,-2.0pt76%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETWill any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
- 1510+45.5pt100%
- 1520-14.3pt77%
- 1530-0.1pt4%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude89.9%
- Gemini2.8%
- ChatGPT1.8%
+6 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺2 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺2 Mn
- Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- OpenAI market share this week
- AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
Sık sorulan sorular
- Will Adam optimizer no longer be the default optimizer for training the best open source models by the end of 2026? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 15 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 68% fiyatlıyor.
- Will Adam optimizer no longer be the default optimizer for training the best open source models by the end of 2026? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will Adam optimizer no longer be the default optimizer for training the best open source models by the end of 2026? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Aralık 2026.
- Will Adam optimizer no longer be the default optimizer for training the best open source models by the end of 2026? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: This market is quite similar to the following market.