Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahmini
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Play-money forecasting platform
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16 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis24 Mar 23 05:16 UTC31 Ara 39 23:59 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will a misaligned AI kill 1% of the world population within any 12 month period before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill the AI Kill Switch Act pass the US House of Representatives before Feb 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill AI kill >20% of the human population before 2030?
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketKurallar
Resolves Yes if >50% of humanity's population is killed in a 12 month time period and I think it >30% likely that the root cause was misaligned AI.
- If I am dead then Manifold can resolve based on Lesswrong community sentiment or a poll with a 30% threshold.
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/ahalekelly/will-misaligned-ai-kill-50-of-the-h-53baa02e69ba)
Açık piyasalar
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+9.0pt56.9%
- 2027+3.5pt33%
- 2026+4.0pt10.1%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺12,6 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺9 Mn
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-5.0pt69%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max-3.0pt3%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+2.5pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-0.5pt84%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+2.1pt59.6%
- ChatGPT-0.4pt25%
- Grok+0.6pt7.7%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺512,2 Mn
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-5.5pt66%
- 1490+-5.0pt56%
- 1500+-0.5pt28%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 daha fazla sonuç
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Best AI in Sep 2026?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on?
- Most popular AI this week
Sık sorulan sorular
- Will misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2040? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 93% fiyatlıyor.
- Will misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2040? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2040? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Aralık 2039.
- Will misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2040? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Resolves Yes if >50% of humanity's population is killed in a 12 month time period and I think it >30% likely that the root cause was misaligned AI.