Güncel topluluk tahmini
Hayır 55.6%
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1
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
2 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis18 Haz 26 15:10 UTC31 Ara 28 23:59 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will "LLMs are (still) mostly powered by imitative ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsAt the beginning of 2028, will LLMs still make egregious common-sensical errors?
Manifold Markets[ACX 2026] Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?
Manifold MarketsU.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
PolymarketWill the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?
FutuurBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiKurallar
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, as of December 31, 2028, at least half of the top 15 of all evaluated individuals by average Elo rating across the language models tracked on the Center for AI Safety (CAIS) AI Values Dashboard (https://values.safe.ai/) or the best replication of it are pro AI safety.
- Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
- Current top rated AI safety people include:
- Yoshua Bengio
- Stuart Russell
Açık piyasalar
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+9.0pt56.9%
- 2027+3.5pt33%
- 2026+4.0pt10.1%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺12,6 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺9 Mn
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-5.0pt69%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max-3.0pt3%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+2.5pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-0.5pt84%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+2.1pt59.6%
- ChatGPT-0.4pt25%
- Grok+0.6pt7.7%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺512,2 Mn
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-5.5pt66%
- 1490+-5.0pt56%
- 1500+-0.5pt28%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 daha fazla sonuç
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Best AI in Sep 2026?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on?
- Most popular AI this week
Sık sorulan sorular
- Will LLMs still mostly preserve high ELO rankings of AI safety people at EOY 2028? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 56% fiyatlıyor.
- Will LLMs still mostly preserve high ELO rankings of AI safety people at EOY 2028? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will LLMs still mostly preserve high ELO rankings of AI safety people at EOY 2028? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Aralık 2028.
- Will LLMs still mostly preserve high ELO rankings of AI safety people at EOY 2028? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Resolution criteria