Will Iran strike US military base at least once before November?
One-OffJeopolitikPolitikaOrta Doğu6g
Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 65.5%
Tahminciler
22
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
7 dakika önce güncellendi
12 Eyl 26 01:41 UTC31 Eki 26 23:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will Iran strike US soil this year?
Manifold MarketsWill the US announce in 2026 it is closing a military base in Germany or Spain?
PredictItUS announces military base in Israel in 2026?
PolymarketWill India start building another military base in the southwest Indian Ocean before end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS military action against Cuba by which date?
PolymarketUS military draft authorized in 2026?
PolymarketKurallar
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if Iran conducts at least one direct military strike against a U.S. military base between September 12, 2026, and November 1, 2026 (00:00 UTC).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
- Definition of "Direct Military Strike": The attack must involve offensive military action (e.g., missiles, drones, artillery, or naval/ground forces) directly launched or commanded by official Iranian state forces (such as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) or the Islamic Republic of Iran Army).
- Proxy Attacks: Attacks conducted solely by regional proxy groups (e.g., Houthis, Hezbollah, or the Islamic Resistance in Iraq) will NOT count for a YES resolution unless official U.S. government/military statements or major credible news outlets directly attribute the launch or command of the specific attack to Iranian state forces.
- Definition of "U.S. Military Base": Any active military facility, airfield, outpost, or base officially hosting or operated by U.S. armed forces (e.g., facilities in Jordan, Bahrain, Iraq, or Syria).