Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 96.1%
Tahminciler
56
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
15 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis27 Eyl 25 12:54 UTC27 Eyl 26 12:46 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will JD Vance read "If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies"?
Manifold MarketsWill at least five purely-AI-written books make it onto the New York Times fiction bestseller list before 2031?
Manifold MarketsWhich characters will appear in Avengers: Doomsday?
PolymarketWill Prince Harry appear on the balcony of Buckingham Palace before Jan. 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill anyone insult Donald Trump during the 2026 Emmy Awards?
PolymarketWill anyone drop an Emmy on stage?
PolymarketKurallar
Resolution criteria
- Resolves YES if “If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies” by Eliezer Yudkowsky & Nate Soares appears on any weekly New York Times Best Sellers list (any category, including Combined Print & E-Book Nonfiction, Hardcover Nonfiction, or Audio Nonfiction) on a list published after this market opens and before it closes.
- Evidence: the title listed on the relevant NYT weekly page.
- Example list pages: https://www.nytimes.com/books/best-sellers/combined-print-and-e-book-nonfiction/ • https://www.nytimes.com/books/best-sellers/hardcover-nonfiction/ • https://www.nytimes.com/books/best-sellers/audio-nonfiction/
- If the book is already on a list the week this market opens, the next distinct weekly appearance counts as “again.”
- I won’t be trading on this market.
Açık piyasalar
Society & CulturePOLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
- 40-64-8.5pt44.4%
- 65-89-12.5pt28.3%
- <40-18.5pt14.1%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺1,6 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺1,6 Mn
KALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- No62%
- Yes-52.0pt38%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺227,9 B
- 24s Hacim
- ₺173,3 B
KALSHIWill Florida receive more visitors in 2026 than in 2025?
- No82%
- Yes+4.0pt18%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺1 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺58,3 B
KALSHIWill Yellowstone record over 5 million recreation visits in 2026?
- No95%
- Yes-6.0pt5%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺864,9 B
- 24s Hacim
- ₺53,6 B
KALSHIHarry Kane Knighted in 2026
- No86%
- Yes14%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺853,9 B
- 24s Hacim
- ₺14,8 B
KALSHIUS test scores in Math in 2026?
- No significant difference+8.0pt39%
- Significant decrease-7.0pt34%
- Significant increase-15.4pt10%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺2,8 Mn
- Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
- Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
- Is Earth flat?
- Will California start laying high-speed rail track in 2026?
- US test scores in Reading in 2026?
- Major news story in Sep 2026?
- Will UCLA out-of-state tuition exceed $55,000 in 2026?
- Which colleges will see their ranking drop this year?
- Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?
- Who will be in the US News top 20 universities?
- Will UCLA out-of-state tuition exceed $53,000 in 2026?
Sık sorulan sorular
- Will If Anyone Builds It appear in a NYT bestseller list again? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 96% fiyatlıyor.
- Will If Anyone Builds It appear in a NYT bestseller list again? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will If Anyone Builds It appear in a NYT bestseller list again? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 27 Eylül 2026.
- Will If Anyone Builds It appear in a NYT bestseller list again? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Resolution criteria