Güncel topluluk tahmini
Hayır 73%
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55
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Piyasa verileri
15 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis15 Mar 23 14:15 UTC1 Oca 31 04:59 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Contingent on AI being perceived as a threat, will humans deliberately cause an AI winter before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill an AI winter happen by 2030?
Manifold MarketsIf an AI winter happens before 2030, what is the most likely reason for it?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiBest AI in Sep 2026?
KalshiGemini 4.0 released by which date?
PolymarketKurallar
Will humans intentionally create a global AI winter, slowing or pausing AI development? This would include government policies, coordination among major AI developers, intentional destruction of resources (legal or illegal), or any other action intended specifically to plateau (or regress) AI development.
- The resolution of this will necessarily be subjective, but significant actions with the intent of pausing AI development happening in conjunction of an apparent pause in increasing AI capabilities of at least 12 months will resolve this YES.
Açık piyasalar
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-13.0pt62.4%
- 2027-13.0pt29.7%
- 2026-3.5pt7.9%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺13,6 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺7,4 Mn
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-0.5pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt57%
- ChatGPT+1.4pt26.2%
- Grok+2.5pt7.5%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺514,3 Mn
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+6.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+3.0pt5%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt5%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 daha fazla sonuç
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt79.1%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt11.8%
- Gemini2.7%
+4 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺19,7 Mn
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Tencent market share this week
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic market share this week
- OpenAI market share this week
- Most popular AI this week
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
Sık sorulan sorular
- Will humans deliberately cause an AI winter? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 9 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 73% fiyatlıyor.
- Will humans deliberately cause an AI winter? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will humans deliberately cause an AI winter? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 1 Ocak 2031.
- Will humans deliberately cause an AI winter? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Will humans intentionally create a global AI winter, slowing or pausing AI development? This would include government policies, coordination among major AI developers, intentional destruction of resources (legal or illegal), or any other action intended specifically to plateau (or regress) AI development.