Will humanity achieve AGI before good desktop search? için güncel oranlar nedir?

Manifold Markets, 31 Ekim 2026 itibarıyla Yes için 58.5% fiyatlıyor.

Will humanity achieve AGI before good desktop search? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?

Will humanity achieve AGI before good desktop search? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 2 Ocak 2040.

Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiİyi kalibre

Güncel topluluk tahmini

Evet 58.5%

Tahminciler

Soru türü

binary

Yöntem

Play-money forecasting platform

Kaynak türü

Tahmin

Piyasa verileri

14 saat önce güncellendi

Guncelligini yitirmis

19 Kas 24 20:35 UTC2 Oca 40 07:59 UTC

Trendler

Sonuç24sOlasılık

Kurallar

This market will resolve to determine if we develop an artificial general intelligence (AGI) before desktop search becomes good.

I'll use common sense definitions for “Good Desktop Search” and AGI.
In the case they happen pretty much at the same time, the market will be decided according to the following rules:
If AGI was necessary to develop good desktop search, the market will resolve to yes.
If good desktop search becomes available on Mac OS or Windows and does not use AGI as a component or substantial subsystem, the market will resolve to no.
The end date is set for January 1st, 2040. as a daily user of AI products and terrible desktop search I'll keep my eye on this one personally