Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiEvet 99%
Tahminciler
27
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
1 saat önce güncellendi
Gecikmeli11 Tem 26 08:51 UTC31 Ara 26 23:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
will the banff vlog be released before january 1. 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Doors of Stone (Kingkiller Chronicles) be released before January 1st 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill a new theatrical Star Trek movie be released on or before January 30, 2030 (1/30/30)?
Manifold MarketsGPT-7 released by which date?
PolymarketWhen will GPT-7 be released?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiKurallar
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if OpenAI officially releases a model explicitly named "GPT-6" (or clearly designated under the "GPT-6" family name, such as "GPT-6 Sol") for public use, developer preview, or API access on or before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC.
- Source of Truth: Resolution will be verified using official announcements from the OpenAI Blog or the official OpenAI X (formerly Twitter) account.
- Alternative Naming: If OpenAI releases their next-generation frontier model under an entirely different brand name (e.g., bypassing the "GPT" brand entirely) but officially declares it to be their "GPT-6-equivalent" or "sixth-generation flagship model," this market may resolve to YES at the creator's discretion.
- Exclusions: Releases of incremental GPT-5 variants (such as GPT-5.5, GPT-5.6, or potential future iterations like GPT-5.7) or specialized domain models (such as GPT-Rosalind) will not trigger a YES resolution.
- If no such model is released by the deadline, the market will resolve to NO.