Güncel topluluk tahmini
Hayır 58.6%
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1
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Piyasa verileri
11 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis7 Nis 26 22:09 UTC1 Oca 28 00:00 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
SOAI#2: A major AI lab leans back into open-sourcing frontier models to win over the current US administration
Manifold MarketsWill the post-April 2026 frontier models be private models / sold to corps [ThePrimeagen prediction]
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketNext Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
PolymarketKurallar
Resolves YES if among frontier AI models released in 2027, a majority used FP8 as their primary pretraining precision.
- Frontier models = flagship from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, Meta AI, xAI, Mistral.
- FP8 means majority of compute in FP8 not BF16/FP16/FP32.
- Mixed precision where FP8 dominates counts.
- Post-training quantization does NOT count.
- Based on official reports or credible reporting.
Açık piyasalar
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-13.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-high+1.0pt5%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺7,6 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺5,8 Mn
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+20.0pt63.5%
- 2027-3.5pt26.1%
- 2026+5.5pt10.4%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,-0.5pt86%
- November 30,85%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude61.8%
- ChatGPT-4.9pt22.6%
- Grok+1.5pt7.8%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺511,4 Mn
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+4.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-3.0pt12%
- Grok2.8%
+4 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺18,2 Mn
- 24s Hacim
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-3.0pt67%
- 1490+-5.5pt50%
- 1500+-10.0pt23%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Sık sorulan sorular
- Will FP8 be the primary pretraining precision for a majority of frontier models released in 2027? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 59% fiyatlıyor.
- Will FP8 be the primary pretraining precision for a majority of frontier models released in 2027? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will FP8 be the primary pretraining precision for a majority of frontier models released in 2027? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 1 Ocak 2028.
- Will FP8 be the primary pretraining precision for a majority of frontier models released in 2027? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Resolves YES if among frontier AI models released in 2027, a majority used FP8 as their primary pretraining precision.