Will four humans receive the Fields Medal in 2030? için güncel oranlar nedir?

Manifold Markets, 31 Ekim 2026 itibarıyla Yes için 82.3% fiyatlıyor.

Will four humans receive the Fields Medal in 2030? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?

Will four humans receive the Fields Medal in 2030? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Aralık 2030.

Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Resolution criteria

Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiİyi kalibre

Veri kalitesi uyarısıEski veriler

31 Eki 2026 07:40 UTC itibarıyla veriler · politika pm-quality-4

Güncel topluluk tahmini

Evet 82.3%

Tahminciler

Soru türü

binary

Yöntem

Play-money forecasting platform

Kaynak türü

Tahmin

Piyasa verileri

12 dakika önce güncellendi

18 Tem 26 05:42 UTC31 Ara 30 23:59 UTC

Trendler

Sonuç24sOlasılık

Kurallar

Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if exactly four humans, and no other parties, are officially awarded the Fields Medal in the calendar year 2030.
It resolves to NO if this is not the case (in the calendar year 2030) for any reason.
For example, this market will resolve NO if any AI model is awarded the medal in 2030, or if no medals are awarded in 2030.
The Fields Medal is awarded every four years by the International Mathematical Union (IMU) during the International Congress of Mathematicians (ICM).
According to the IMU statutes, the selection committee is instructed to choose at least two and no more than four Fields Medalists under the age of 40, with a strong preference for awarding exactly four medals.