Güncel topluluk tahmini
Evet 66%
Tahminciler
16
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
13 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis24 Eki 23 14:30 UTC31 Ara 28 14:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will a 2026 science Nobel motivation mention AI, machine learning, or neural networks?
Manifold MarketsWill LLMs such as GPT-4 be seen as at most just a part of the solution to AGI? (Gary Marcus GPT-4 prediction #7)
Manifold MarketsWill Grok 5 beat the best human team at League of Legends in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhat will happen in 2026 related to AI?
Manifold MarketsPublic LLM exceeds superforecaster on Forecast bench by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsKurallar
This market is focused on more technical definition of LLMs than the market below.
- The engine must use end-to-end neural networks including LLMs.
- Explicit monte-carlo tree search or equivalent methods, which is standard in current chess algorithms, can not be used.
- This market resolves to YES if the NN score above 2,700 in classic elo rating.
- (Same as original market)
- https://manifold.markets/MP/will-a-large-language-models-beat-a?r=eWs
Açık piyasalar
Sports
POLYMARKETCincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Atlanta Braves: Full game — Over 6.5 total runs51%
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)+12.5pt50%
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)+25.0pt50%
+27 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺228,1 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺228 Mn
KALSHI2027 Pro Football Champion
- Los Angeles R11.2%
- Buffalo-1.0pt10.3%
- San Francisco7.8%
+29 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺6,4 Mr
- 24s Hacim
- ₺145,3 Mn
KALSHIMilwaukee vs Philadelphia
- Philadelphia+2.0pt58%
- Milwaukee-2.0pt42%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺127 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺123,7 Mn
KALSHIFedEx Open de France Winner
- Tommy Fleetwood-0.2pt8.9%
- Ludvig Åberg+0.3pt8.9%
- Ryan Gerard-0.1pt6.3%
+97 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHICleveland vs Boston
- Cleveland+18.0pt63.7%
- Boston-18.0pt36.3%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺87,7 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺86,8 Mn
KALSHICassone vs Tabur
- Murphy Cassone57.4%
- Clement Tabur42.6%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺86,6 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺86,6 Mn
Sık sorulan sorular
- Will end-to-end neural networks such as LLMs can beat the best human player in chess by 2028? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 22 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Yes için 66% fiyatlıyor.
- Will end-to-end neural networks such as LLMs can beat the best human player in chess by 2028? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will end-to-end neural networks such as LLMs can beat the best human player in chess by 2028? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Aralık 2028.
- Will end-to-end neural networks such as LLMs can beat the best human player in chess by 2028? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: This market is focused on more technical definition of LLMs than the market below.