Will Emmett Shear's new company make important and central contributions to AI alignment?
One-OffYZ4yManifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 80%
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14
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Tahmin
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2 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis29 Mar 25 20:45 UTC31 Ara 30 23:59 UTC
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Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
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KalshiKurallar
https://www.corememory.com/p/exclusive-emmett-shear-is-back-with-softmax
- This is obviously a very ambiguous and subjective question, I'd rather have an imperfect market than none
- Close date extends indefinitely until the answer to this is clear.
- "Central" is a high bar.
- Example: Inventing a better interpretability tool or a better method of reinforcement learning isn't enough to resolve this market YES, even if they're genuinely better than the alternatives and everyone adopts them.
- The most central YES resolution is is if their "organic alignment" works and is adopted by everyone, but it being a part of a future widely adopted alignment solution, or being widely accepted by AI safety as an important alignment innovation but not used, would work too.
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Sık sorulan sorular
- Will Emmett Shear's new company make important and central contributions to AI alignment? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 80% fiyatlıyor.
- Will Emmett Shear's new company make important and central contributions to AI alignment? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will Emmett Shear's new company make important and central contributions to AI alignment? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Aralık 2030.
- Will Emmett Shear's new company make important and central contributions to AI alignment? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: https://www.corememory.com/p/exclusive-emmett-shear-is-back-with-softmax