Will Elon Musk create the first AGI by 2030? için güncel oranlar nedir?

Manifold Markets, 26 Ekim 2026 itibarıyla No için 94.2% fiyatlıyor.

Will Elon Musk create the first AGI by 2030? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?

Will Elon Musk create the first AGI by 2030? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 1 Ocak 2030.

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26 Eki 2026 07:03 UTC itibarıyla veriler · politika pm-quality-4

Güncel topluluk tahmini

Hayır 94.2%

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Play-money forecasting platform

Kaynak türü

Tahmin

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10 saat önce güncellendi

Guncelligini yitirmis

25 Eyl 23 00:20 UTC1 Oca 30 07:59 UTC

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Resolves YES if by the creator's best judgement, a Elon-Musk-controlled company creates an AGI by 2030 before any other company.

Tesla AI and xAI are the main AI labs to monitor, but any Elon-controlled company counts.
Also resolves YES if a nonprofit or government program led by Musk creates the first AGI by 2030, or if Elon Musk personally develops the first AGI.
Resolves NO if a non-Musk organization creates AGI first by 2030 or if AGI does not exist by 2030.
Judgement on whether a model constitutes AGI will be at the discretion of the creator, who will take into account benchmark performance, expert opinion, and any other evidence deemed to be credible.